Change-point detection (CPD) aims at detecting the abrupt property changes lying behind time series data. The property changes in a multivariate time series often result from highly entangled reasons, ranging from independent changes of variables to correlation changes between variables. Learning to uncover the reasons behind the changes in an unsupervised setting is a new and challenging task. Previous CPD methods usually detect change-points by a divergence estimation of statistical features, without delving into the reasons behind the detected changes. In this paper, we propose a correlation-aware dynamics model which separately predicts the correlation change and independent change by incorporating graph neural networks into the encoder-decoder framework. Through experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate the enhanced performance of our model on the CPD tasks as well as its ability to interpret the nature and degree of the predicted changes.

Graph based entropy, an index of the diversity of events in their distribution to parts of a co-occurrence graph, is proposed for detecting signs of structural changes in the data that are informative in explaining latent dynamics of consumers behavior. For obtaining graph-based entropy, connected subgraphs are first obtained from the graph of co-occurrences of items in the data. Then, the distribution of items occurring in events in the data to these sub-graphs is reflected on the value of graph-based entropy. For the data on the position of sale, a change in this value is regarded as a sign of the appearance, the separation, the disappearance, or the uniting of consumers interests. These phenomena are regarded as the signs of dynamic changes in consumers behavior that may be the effects of external events and information. Experiments show that graph-based entropy outperforms baseline methods that can be used for change detection, in explaining substantial changes and their signs in consumers preference of items in supermarket stores.

The objective of change-point detection is to discover abrupt property changes lying behind time-series data. In this paper, we present a novel statistical change-point detection algorithm based on non-parametric divergence estimation between time-series samples from two retrospective segments. Our method uses the relative Pearson divergence as a divergence measure, and it is accurately and efficiently estimated by a method of direct density-ratio estimation. Through experiments on artificial and real-world datasets including human-activity sensing, speech, and Twitter messages, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method.